Saturday, November 23, 2013

California October 2013 Unemployment Rate

California's October 2013 unemployment rate stands at 8.7%, higher than 45 others states and lower than four states and Washington, D.C.  California's unemployment rate is essentially unchanged from its July 2013 level but higher than the national rate of 7.3%.

The California economy added 39,800 jobs from September to October 2013.  California has regained 868,300 jobs of the roughly 1.3 million jobs lost after the global financial crisis.  To date, California has recovered 67% of the jobs that California had in January, 2008.

While California continues to have decent job growth, it continues to lag other states.  The following chart compares the job growth since January 2008 between the two most-populous states, California and Texas.


On the national level ...

Unemployment patterns remain as before the 2008-2009 recession, only magnified.  Unemployment is highest for those lacking a high school diploma.  The unemployment rate improves with increasing education. However, at all educational levels, unemployment rates remain higher than their pre-recession levels.

Likewise, previous patterns of unemployment by rate or ethnicity continue, only magnified.  The unemployment rate for black or African-Americans is highest, followed by Hispanics or Latinos, then followed by whites and Asians.  Only Asians have an unemployment rate lower than the peak of the previous recession.

The ratio of civilian unemployment to total population remains stubbornly stagnant at its lowest level in a generation.  The falling unemployment rate may be due to fewer people in the work force.
Likewise, the civilian labor force participation rate is its lowest since 1978.


The average duration of unemployment, while falling, remains near its all-time record high of 40.7 weeks. The previous high was 21.2, well below the current value of 36.1 weeks.
The following chart shows the total non-form employment for the United States from 2000 until October 2013.  During the current downturn, the U.S. job market lost over 8.7 million jobs from its January 2008 peak. Since then, the job market regained 7.2 million of those jobs, or 83% of the previous peak level. Meanwhile, the working-age population increased by 9.5 million from 2008 to 2012 and likely more through 2013.  Consequently, while the U.S. economy is adding jobs, it is also adding workers.

Wednesday, October 30, 2013

Federal Budget Deficit Drops Below $1 TRILLION for the First Time During the Obama Presidency


The U.S. federal budget deficit dropped below the $1 TRILLION mark for the first time during the Obama Presidency.  Many politicians, including Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, were quick to herald this "incredible accomplishment."  After all, the President has been busy claiming that he's reduced the deficit at the fastest rate in 60 years.  Naturally, he forgot to mention that his administration also INCREASED deficits at the fastest rate in 60 years.

While a $680 BILLION deficit may seem a major accomplishment, it represents 4.1% of U.S. gross domestic product (GDP).  Prior to the Obama Presidency, the last time the U.S. budget deficit was this high was 1992 during the last year of the George H.W. ("read my lips") Bush Presidency.  Borrowing was approximately $1.85 BILLION for each and every day of the fiscal year.

See also ...

The Rest of the Story Behind President Obama's Deficit Claim and PolitiFact's "Fact Checking"

Monday, October 21, 2013

John F. Kennedy: Former President, Democrat, and "Teabagger"?

President John F. Kennedy, a Democrat, once said the following on January 29, 1961, otherwise known as Roosevelt Day.  With such pro-American "violent Tea Party rhetoric," can you imagine what today's Democratic Party would call him?

In my own native state of Massachusetts, the battle for American freedom was begun by the thousands of farmers and tradesmen who made up the Minute Men--citizens who were ready to defend their liberty at a moment's notice. Today we need a nation of Minute Men; citizens who are not only prepared to take up arms, but citizens who regard the preservation of freedom as a basic purpose of their daily life and who are willing to consciously work and sacrifice for that freedom. The cause of liberty, the cause of America, cannot succeed with any lesser effort

Often-Quoted CNN/ORC Polls Shows that Majority Dislikes John Boeher AND Consistently Opposes Obamacare


A recent CNN/ORC poll attracted significant media attention because it indicates that a majority of those polled say that they favor somebody else as Speaker of the House over John Boehner.  See Question 10.


Sadly, the media failed to notice Question 14 that shows that a majority of those polled have consistently opposed President Obama's health care plan.  See the top graph.  In fact, the President's plan has never once received majority support.


For the record, I'm not a John Boehner fan either.  I just find it amusing what the media reports and what the media chooses to ignore.

Saturday, October 19, 2013

The Tea Party and Charges of Sedition

There are those among the Left who seek to file charges of sedition or inflict physical violence upon those associated with the Tea Party.  I suggest that both sides consider the wise words of former President Theodore Roosevelt, written when many challenged the Wilson Administration's seeming unconstitutional abuse of power during World War I.

Kansas City Star on May 7, 1918:
"Sedition, A Free Press, and Personal Rule
The President is merely the most important among a large number of public servants. He should be supported or opposed exactly to the degree which is warranted by his good conduct or bad conduct, his efficiency or inefficiency in rendering loyal, able, and disinterested service to the Nation as a whole. Therefore it is absolutely necessary that there should be full liberty to tell the truth about his acts, and this means that it is exactly necessary to blame him when he does wrong as to praise him when he does right. Any other attitude in an American citizen is both base and servile. To announce that there must be no criticism of the President, or that we are to stand by the President, right or wrong, is not only unpatriotic and servile, but is morally treasonable to the American public. Nothing but the truth should be spoken about him or any one else. But it is even more important to tell the truth, pleasant or unpleasant, about him than about any one else."
Apparently, even former First Lady and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton seems to agree with this view.

Friday, October 18, 2013

Predictable: Treasury Department Adds Record Debt the Day after Congress Eliminated Debt Ceiling

The October 2013 government shutdown agreement resulted in Congress temporarily(?) removing the debt ceiling. As predicted in a previous post, Treasury has now added a record, $328 BILLION in unrecognized debt to the U.S. public debt in a single day--nearly a third of a TRILLION dollars in debt. This "new" debt was kept off the public debt to avoid exceeding the legal debt limit. The money has already been spent and was "borrowed" from a variety of other public funds including the retirement plans for federal employees. From the chart, even after adding $328 BILLION, Treasury will likely add another $25 BILLION in the next following days, until the actual public debt approaches the blue dashed trend line.

The following chart shows the daily increase or decrease in the U.S. national debt, measured in billions of dollars. It's the same information as above but only presents the day-to-day changes in the debt. The previous record increase followed the 2011 debt-limit debate when Treasury dropped $238 BILLION of off-the-books debt onto the public debt. The latest debt-limit impasse lasted longer and Treasury built up significantly more off-the-books debt. As a result, as soon as Congress removed the limit, Treasury officially recognized $328 BILLION in "new" debt.

Even a drunken sailor can predict that our current debt trajectory is "unsustainable." So what do we do about it?
  • Congress and the President must craft and PASS an actual budget. The U.S. government has continued to operate without a formal budget for most of President Obama's tenure.
  • Congress needs to vote on the fiscal reforms proposed by the Bowles-Simpson debt commission charted by President Obama.

See also ...

Is the U.S. Treasury Hiding Debt (Again)?


The Debt Ceiling and Where Do You Hide $238 BILLION?

Wednesday, October 9, 2013

California has the Nation's 6th Highest Incident of Abortion

California Governor Jerry Brown signed a bill expanding the the list of non-physician professionals allowed to provide abortion procedures in the state.  Based on Census data, California only has the nation's 6th-highest rate of abortion, behind Delaware, New York, New Jersey, Washington, D.C., and Maryland. California's incident of abortion far exceeds the national average.  That's how "rare" abortion is in California.

The good new?  The California Legislature finally deregulated a business.  Too bad it for abortions.