Creekside Chat: CA

Showing posts with label CA. Show all posts

Wednesday, January 29, 2014

California December 2013 Unemployment Rate Compared to 49 Other States

Friday, June 21, 2013

California May 2013 Unemployment Rate

According the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), California's official unemployment rate continued to improve in May 2013, dropping by 0.4% from 0.9% in April to 8.6% in May. The national unemployment rate increased 0.1% to 7.6%. California's unemployment rate continues to lag the nation as a whole and is tied with New Jersey at the 5th-highest in the nation ahead of Nevada, Mississippi, Illinois, Rhode Island, and North Carolina.

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics: Unemployment Rate for States, Seasonally Adjusted (April 2013, preliminary).

www.bls.gov/web/laus/laumstrk.htm

The current 8.6% unemployment rate is at its lowest level since October 2008, just before the 2008 Presidential election. The current 8.6% unemployment rate remains higher than the 7.0% peak during the prior recession although it currently is lower than the peak of the early 1990s recession.

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: Unemployment Rate in California (CAUR)

research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/CAUR/

Total non-farm payroll jobs in California grew by 10,800 jobs and presently stands at 14,612,500 jobs. The current levels is up 727,200 jobs since the bottom of the recession but is is down 529,600 jobs from January 2008. At the current growth rate of 10,800 jobs per month, total employment will reach January 2008 levels in approximately four yours.

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics: California, Total Nonfarm, Seasonally adjusted - SMS06000000000000001.

data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/surveymost?sm+06

Approximately 1.6 million Californians remain unemployed, down 364,000 from May 2012.

At the national level, the civilian participation rates in the job market (CIVPART, EMRATIO) remain at their lowest levels in a generation and show no immediate signs of improvement.

The average (mean) duration of unemployment (UEMPMEAN) and the median duration of unemployment (UEMPMED) remain well above the highs set in prior recessions. The average duration is for all those who are unemployed. The median indicates that 50% of those who are unemployed had a longer duration, 50% had a shorter duration. The difference between the mean and the median indicates that there are a large number of long-term unemployed people. This may be a possible effect of providing 99 weeks of unemployment benefits.

Overall national unemployment rates exhibit their typical ethnic and education-level patterns.

Nationally, Black or African American unemployment is highest at 13.5%, followed by Hispanic or Latino unemployment at 9.1%. White unemployment is 6.7% while Asian unemployment is lowest at 4.3%.

The unemployment rate is highest for those lacking a high school diploma, currently at 11.1%. The data is only for those 25 and older, so it does not include teenage unemployment data. Those who are high school graduates, but no college have a 7.4% unemployment rate. For those with a bachelor's degree or higher, unemployment stands at 3.8%. In all categories, the overall unemployment rate is higher than historical averages.

Friday, May 17, 2013

California April 2013 Unemployment Rate

California's official unemployment rate continued to improve in April 2013, dropping by 0.4% from March to 9.0%. California's unemployment rate continues to lag the nation as a whole and is the 4th-highest in the nation ahead of Nevada, Illinois, and Mississippi.

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics: Unemployment Rate for States, Seasonally Adjusted (April 2013, preliminary).
www.bls.gov/web/laus/laumstrk.htm

The total number of non-farm payroll jobs in California continues to improve and presently stands at 14,602,200. The current levels is down 539,900 jobs since January 2008.

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics: California, Total Nonfarm, Seasonally adjusted - SMS06000000000000001.

data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/surveymost?sm+06

Monday, March 18, 2013

California January 2013 Unemployment Rate Compared to 49 Other States

The Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the January 2013 seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate for each state. This release was delayed from late February until mid-March, perhaps because the BLS was adjusting the last two years worth of data.

Regardless, California's unemployment rate remains stubbornly steady at 9.8%. Thanks to big improvements by Nevada in January, California is now tied for worst unemployment with Rhode Island.

The BLS will release the February 2013 unemployment data on 29-MAR-2013.

Friday, January 18, 2013

California December 2012 Unemployment Rate Compared to 49 Other States

California's December 2012 unemployment rate remained flat compared to November 2012, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. California's unemployment rate dropped 1.4% from the 11.2% rate one year ago. California's unemployment rate is 3rd highest in the nation, ahead of only Rhode Island and Nevada. Nevada's economy is closely coupled with California's. However, Nevada's December unemployment rate improved by 0.6% compared to November's rate, tying Rhode Island.

The EMRATIO shows that there continues to be lower-than-usual participation in the labor market nationally. Compare the duration of the current low ratio against the deeper but shorter dip during the early 1980s. Remember also that the current situation stubbornly persists even after a whopping $878 BILLION federal stimulus program and significant quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve.

The UEMPMEAN data shows the average duration that a worker is unemployed--currently around 38 weeks! Again, notice the stark difference to the recession in the early 1980s.

The UEMPMED data shows the median duration of unemployment. Half the workers have shorter unemployment, half the workers have longer unemployment. Note the difference between the average (mean) duration above and the median duration, shown below. Half the workers are finding jobs in about 18 weeks. However, the large average indicates that the other half require significantly longer to find a new job.

The wide spread between the average duration and the median duration (UEMPMEAN-UEMPMED) indicates that there are a large number of unemployed workers that still have not found jobs. There could be possible effects of the federal government providing up to 99 weeks of unemployment benefits. Again, the difference between the 1980's recession and the most-recent recession is interesting.

Wednesday, October 31, 2012

For Governor Jerry Brown So Loved Public Education ...

For Governor Jerry Brown so loved public education, he sought to eliminate California's 2nd-year science requirement to save money. This came soon after California's 8th graders ranked near the bottom nationally on the National Assessment on Educational Progress (NAEP) test, just ahead of Washington, D.C. (with some of the nation's highest educational spending) and Mississippi but tied with Alabama.

"California budget proposal would end a science requirement: Under Gov. Jerry Brown's revised budget proposal, a second year of science would no longer be required for high school graduation. The aim is to save the state money."

http://articles.latimes.com/2012/jun/06/local/la-me-science-schools-20120606

For Governor Jerry Brown so loved public education, he says he WILL NOT CONSIDER and THREATENS TO VETO any attempt to soften the blow of his "trigger cuts" to public education. That's a little strange since he so rarely ever used his veto power against spending. I guess we know where public education falls in his spending priorities. Here are just a few examples.

"California Gov. Jerry Brown Signs $200 Million Movie/TV Production Tax Credit Extension"
http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/governor-jerry-brown-200-million-tv-movie-production-tax-credit-extension-375223

"Gov. Brown signs bill spending $2.6B on high-speed rail"
http://www.dailynews.com/news/ci_21102650/gov-brown-signs-bill-spending-2-6-billion

"Jerry Brown signs Dream Act for illegal immigrants"
http://www.sfgate.com/news/article/Jerry-Brown-signs-Dream-Act-for-illegal-immigrants-2327890.php

"Top-paid California legislative employees get pay raises"
http://www.sacbee.com/2012/07/20/4643546/top-paid-california-legislative.html

Californians, we've been played for suckers before. Remember when 1984's Proposition 37 was going to solve education funding via the Lottery? Remember when 1998's Proposition 98 was going to end the problem of funding public education? Remember when 2000's Proposition 20 was going to solve education funding by better spending the Lottery money? Proposition 30 is just another money-grab by an irresponsible California Legislature and Governor.

VOTE NO ON PROPOSITION 30. Here's why.
http://soquelbythecreek.blogspot.com/2012/07/california-proposition-30-governor.html

Saturday, July 14, 2012

California Proposition 30: Governor Jerry Brown's Big-Government Tax Hike

California Governor Jerry Brown, in partnership with public-sector unions such as the California Teachers Association (CTA), the California Federation of Teachers (CFT) and the Service Employee International Union (SEIU) proposes big tax hikes on a small number of Californians in order to close a multi-billion dollar budget hole. Despite the budget hole, threats to public safety, and threats to close public schools for weeks, the California Legislature continues to block prudent comprehensive public-pension reforms, to fund tuition benefits for children of undocumented workers, and to fund a not-so-"high-speed" rail line between Merced and Bakersfield. The California Legislature has NO SPENDING PRIORITIES.

The latest incarnation of the Governor's plan will appear on the November 2012 ballot in California as Proposition 30.

California already has some of the highest state taxes in the United States. Those earning over $48,000 incur a 9.3% state tax rate--California's second-highest rate, which by itself is already the fourth highest in the nation even without any tax hikes. Only the top tax rates in Hawaii, California, and Oregon are higher.

If passed, Proposition 30 would burden California the nation’s first, second, third, and fifth highest marginal state tax rates! The following chart compares California's current state income tax rates and proposed increases against the highest income tax rates in other states. Billed by the Governor and his allies as a "temporary" tax hike, these rates would be in effect for seven years. The income tax increases fall exclusively on the top 2-3% of taxpayers who already pay roughly half (or more) of California's entire tax bill.

In order to appear "fair" and "broad-based", Proposition 30 also increases California’s state sales tax, already the nation’s highest. The following chart compares California’s state sales tax rate to the other 49 states.

Despite all of Governor Brown's talk of tax fairness, Proposition 30 circumvents the Legislature’s 2/3rd requirement to raise taxes. In fact, Proposition 30 is “electioneered” by Governor Jerry Brown and his allies to only require a simple majority to pass. Proposition 30 asks the 50% of California voters--who pay little or no state income tax--to pass a big tax increase on the top 2-3% of California taxpayers, who already pay roughly 50% of ALL state income taxes. Proposition 30 is an abuse of the so-called “democratic process”, especially for so-called Democrats. Is this what “democracy” looks like?

Proposition 30 asks California voters for a four-year, 0.25% rate increase to the state sales tax, which equates to a 3.4% rate increase. The sales tax hike applies to ALL Californians. Proposition 30 also asks voters for a seven-year increase on only the top 2-3% of income taxpayers. This equates to a 9.7% to 24.4% rate increase for the taxpayers who ALREADY pay the highest effective tax rate and roughly 50% of all state income tax.

In 2009, the average tax liability for every California taxpayer was about $2,655. However, averages usually hide some important details. For example, the average human being has one testicle and one ovary. The bottom 50% of taxpayers (and possible voters) pays between $0 and $500 in TOTAL California income tax. Meanwhile, Governor Brown's tax increase targets the top 2-3% of taxpayers who earn $250,000 or more ever year, despite that they ALREADY pay the highest effective tax rates. These taxpayers also already pay between $9,000 and $1.3 million.

The primary reason that California income tax revenues collapsed during the financial crisis is that INCOMES collapsed for ALL Californians, but especially for those at the top. The following chart shows the incomes and income taxes collected in 2007 (before the financial crash) and in 2009 (after the financial crash). Why the big swings in income and taxes for those making over $1 million? Unlike the federal tax system, California treats capital gains exactly like ordinary earned income. The California Legislature loves all the extra revenue generated from stock market and real estate gains. Unfortunately, this over-reliance means huge decreases during market crashes. The subprime crisis causes simultaneous crashes is BOTH real estate and on Wall Street. The California Legislative Analysts Office (LAO) has long recognized this problem as a cause for California's revenue volatility.

Despite that top taxpayers still pay the highest marginal tax rates, Proposition 30 wants to increase those rates even more, leaving California even MORE VULNERABLE to future market swings.

California ALREADY suffers from its high taxation. The result is that California suffers from a poor business tax climate that drives away jobs and causes are above-average unemployment. Many Democrats within the California government refuse to believe that high taxes have any effect on California's economy, despite ample evidence to the contrary. Why have California's tax revenues dropped? It is NOT because tax rates are too low. The fundamental problem is that California's private-sector economy is stagnating while government expenditures have increased. Simply raising taxes, even if it is limited to the top 2-3%, will NOT fix what ails California.

California currently has the nation’s 3rd-worst unemployment rate, beating out only Rhode Island and Nevada.

Naturally, the public-employee unions are bankrolling Proposition 30 and have spent over $31.6 MILLION as of November 3, 2012.

Many of these groups are also recognized as the biggest spenders in California politics, according to a March 2010 report by the California Fair Political Practices Commission. The California Teachers Association (CTA) has spent $10.7 MILLION on Proposition 30 so far and the Service Employees International Union (SEIU) has spent over $11.1 MILLION as of 11/3/2012. The spending will likely be even higher by the time the election is over.

What kind of access does that kind of money buy? Just ask California Governor Jerry Brown, who has private town-hall meetings with California's public-sector unions. Even career Democrats such as Willie Brown (no relation)--California's longest-serving Assembly Speaker and former Mayor of San Francisco--recognize that Governor Brown is a prisoner of the teachers unions. These are the same unions that are bankrolling his tax hike and likely will be out campaigning for it before November.

Meanwhile, the amount of money that the State of California spends continues to grow. State spending is up 23% since 2000, even accounting for inflation.

Political columnist Dan Walters asks some very good questions about Proposition 30.

Why should we pay more ...

when we already have one of the nation's highest tax burdens,

when the Legislature is handing out raises to its staff,

when politicians haven't curbed rapidly increasing pension costs,

when they're wasting billions on prisons,

when they've shunned a spending limit,

when they've squandered money on a hapless bullet train project and unworkable computer systems,

when they're spending tens of millions on illegal immigrants' college educations, and

most importantly – when the state is mired in recession and 2 million-plus are jobless?

Fellow Californians, I urge you to VOTE NO on PROPOSITION 30! It's bad tax policy and an abuse of the democratic system.

See also ...

California Secretary of State: Text of Proposition 30
http://ag.ca.gov/cms_attachments/initiatives/pdfs/i1057_12-0009_governors_initiative_v3.pdf
California Legislative Analysts Office: Proposition 30
http://www.lao.ca.gov/ballot/2012/120208.aspx
MapLight.org: California Proposition 30
http://votersedge.org/california/ballot-measures/2012/november/prop-30/funding
KCET: Prop 30 Cheat Sheet: Jerry Brown's Tax Measure
www.kcet.org/news/ballotbrief/elections2012/propositions/prop-30-cheat-sheet-jerry-browns-tax-to.html
KCET: Who's Funding Prop 30, Jerry Brown's Temporary Tax for Education and Guaranteed Public Safety Funding?
www.kcet.org/news/ballotbrief/elections2012/propositions/database-whos-funding-prop-30-temporary-tax-to-fund-education.html
Ballotpedia: California Proposition 30, Sales and Income Tax Increase (2012)
www.ballotpedia.org/wiki/index.php/California_Proposition_30,_Sales_and_Income_Tax_Increase_(2012)
California Secretary of State: Political Committees to Support or Oppose Proposition 30
http://cal-access.sos.ca.gov/Campaign/Measures/Detail.aspx?id=1346100&session=2011
Election Track: Californians Working Together To Restore And Protect Public Schools, Universities And Public Safety
www.electiontrack.com/lookup.php?committee=1346049
Election Track: Californians To Protect Schools, Universities And Public Safety, A Ballot Measure Committee Supported By Governor Jerry Brown
www.electiontrack.com/lookup.php?committee=1343257
Election Track: Reclaim California's Future - Yes On Prop. 30
www.electiontrack.com/lookup.php?committee=1347688
Election Track: Educators And Working Families To Restore California, A Coalition Of Educators, Community Groups, And Grassroots Organizationswww.electiontrack.com/lookup.php?committee=1344079
Dan Walters: "Censorship rears its ugly head in California Senate"
www.sacbee.com/2012/08/10/4712081/dan-walters-censorship-rears-its.html
Sacramento Bee: "Viewpoints: Prop. 30 will hurt state's economic prospects"
http://www.sacbee.com/2012/10/06/4885977/viewpoints-prop-30-would-hurt.html
Santa Clarita Valley Signal: "Kevin Korenthal: Prop 32, not 30, deserves your vote"
http://www.the-signal.com/section/33/article/77367/
Santa Cruz Sentinel: "Prop. 30 neither honest nor transparent" http://www.santacruzsentinel.com/opinion/ci_21814545/harold-griffith-prop-30-neither-honest-nor-transparent
Daily Titan: "Prop 30 can't save California from debt" http://www.dailytitan.com/2012/10/prop-30-cant-save-california-from-debt
CATO: "86ing the Arguments for California Props 30, 38"
http://www.cato-at-liberty.org/86ing-the-arguments-for-california-props-30-38
BLOG: "Was the California Senate Censorship of Proposition 30 Intentional? You Decide!"
http://soquelbythecreek.blogspot.com/2012/08/as-reported-in-sacramento-bee-democrat.html
BLOG: "The Hollywood and Media Hypocrisy on California Proposition 30 and Possible Media Bias"
http://soquelbythecreek.blogspot.com/2012/08/prop30mediabiasquestions.html
BLOG: Proposition 30 "Trigger Cuts" Threat Add Up to a Whole Lot of Nothing http://soquelbythecreek.blogspot.com/2012/10/proposition-30-trigger-cuts-add-up-to.html

Tuesday, December 6, 2011

Examining Governor Jerry Brown's Proposed Tax Increases

(Updated 27-MAR-2012)

NOTE: This analysis is for Governor Brown's initial tax hike proposal. Due to political infighting with the California Federation of Teachers (CFT), Governor Brown has modified his proposal to be more like the CFT's so-called "Millionaires Tax." Essentially, the new plan has a smaller increase on sales tax revenues, has significant additional income tax increases on upper-income taxpayers, and extends the "temporary" increase to seven years. A new analysis is in the works but all of the arguments against the increase still hold true.

It looks like California Governor Jerry Brown is out with his proposed "fix" for California's budget shortfall. Turning to his exhaustive play book of--how shall I say this politely?--one play, the Governor proposes tax hikes. And this is from a Governor who sold the electorate on his vast political experience.

First, some background information. California already has the nation's second-highest marginal tax rate of 10.3%, second only to Hawaii, at 11%. Even California's 2nd top income tax rate is the nation's 4th highest, after Hawaii, California's top bracket, and Oregon. California's 2nd top bracket starts at $48,000 in income for single taxpayers.

To fix the multi-billion dollar shortfall, Governor Brown proposes creating new state tax brackets and to increase taxes on those brackets by up to 21.5%. The Governor's proposal would add the following new brackets. The dollar brackets shown are for single tax filers; brackets for married filing jointly are doubled.

Tax rates for those making less than $250,000 remain the same. California would keep it's current 9.3% rate for those making more than $47,000.
Income between $250,000 and $300,000 are taxed at 10.3%, which is the same rate currently charged for those making more than $1,000,000.
Income between $300,000 and $500,000 are taxed at 10.8%.
Income between $500,000 and $1,000,000 are taxed at 11.3%, which exceeds the highest marginal tax rate from any other state in the nation.
Thanks to California's Proposition 63, those earning more than $1,000,000 are charged an extra 1% to fund mental health services--proving I guess that you must be INSANE to be a millionaire and have your tax residence in California.
Unlike the federal government and many of its economic competitors, California treats capital gains exactly like ordinary income and taxes capital gains at the maximum applicable tax rate. This means that California's budget greatly depends on stock market and real-estate returns on upper-income taxpayers. The result is a watershed of revenue in good times and a drought during downturns.

The following chart helps to better compare the increased tax rates against those of other states. (NOTE: Oregon dropped their top rate from 11% to 9.9%)

The Governor purposely did not increase tax rates on lower incomes, perhaps in a nod to tax fairness. After all, those making more than $300,000 only currently pay more than eight times more total tax and have an eight times higher average effective tax rate than the vast majority of other Californians. The only thing lacking from the 1.9% of taxpayers is the votes at the ballot box to prevent more exploitation by the majority.

Those in upper brackets not only pay a higher effective tax rate, they also obvious pay far more in absolute dollars. Those fortunate 42,517 taxpayers with incomes of $1 million or more paid an average of $304,553 in California income taxes with an effective tax rate of 8.97%.

In all fairness, all taxpayers, especially those at the lower-end of the income spectrum, will be hit by Governor Brown's proposed sales tax increase. California ALREADY has the nation's highest sales tax rate. Governor Brown will enshrine our first place finish by adding another 0.5% on top, not including the additional taxes charged by various California counties and cities. This amounts to a 6% increase over current tax law.

Governor Brown's tax increase proposal will likely be popular with the two biggest spenders in California politics, the California Teachers Association (CTA) and the California State Council of Service Employees (SEIU). Both are significant donors to the Governor's political party. Furthermore, even fellow Democrats acknowledge that Governor Brown must kowtow to the teacher's union.

The bulk of any tax revenues is earmarked for education, which is already one of the biggest recipients of taxpayer dollars.

The big questions remain. How will these proposed tax increases affect California's already damaged business climate--you know, the source for all that tax revenue. California currently ranks at or near the bottom of various surveys, from multiple independent sources, for multiple years.

California's poor business climate and high taxation resulted in a net migration out of California. According to the L.A. Times, the percentage of people from other U.S. states is the lowest it has been in a hundred years! Because California's tax revenues are so dependent on very few, high-income taxpayers, small changes in taxpayer population can have dramatic effects on tax revenues. Over 50% of income taxes come from less than 2% of the population.

Political columnist Dan Walters has a great summary message for those that oppose the tax increases.