California January 2014 Unemployment Rate vs. 49 Other States

California Has the Nation's #1, #2, #3, #5, and #9 Highest State Income Tax Rates

California December 2013 Unemployment Rate Compared to 49 Other States

California Gasoline Taxes Remain Highest in the United States

California May 2013 Unemployment Rate

According the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), California's official unemployment rate continued to improve in May 2013, dropping by 0.4% from 0.9% in April to 8.6% in May. The national unemployment rate increased 0.1% to 7.6%. California's unemployment rate continues to lag the nation as a whole and is tied with New Jersey at the 5th-highest in the nation ahead of Nevada, Mississippi, Illinois, Rhode Island, and North Carolina.

SOURCE:  U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics:  Unemployment Rate for States, Seasonally Adjusted (April 2013, preliminary).

www.bls.gov/web/laus/laumstrk.htm

The current 8.6% unemployment rate is at its lowest level since October 2008, just before the 2008 Presidential election. The current 8.6% unemployment rate remains higher than the 7.0% peak during the prior recession although it currently is lower than the peak of the early 1990s recession.

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: Unemployment Rate in California (CAUR)

research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/CAUR/

Total non-farm payroll jobs in California grew by 10,800 jobs and presently stands at 14,612,500 jobs.  The current levels is up 727,200 jobs since the bottom of the recession but is is down 529,600 jobs from January 2008. At the current growth rate of 10,800 jobs per month, total employment will reach January 2008 levels in approximately four yours.

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics:  California, Total Nonfarm, Seasonally adjusted - SMS06000000000000001.

data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/surveymost?sm+06

Approximately 1.6 million Californians remain unemployed, down 364,000 from May 2012.

At the national level, the civilian participation rates in the job market (CIVPART, EMRATIO) remain at their lowest levels in a generation and show no immediate signs of improvement.

The average (mean) duration of unemployment (UEMPMEAN) and the median duration of unemployment (UEMPMED) remain well above the highs set in prior recessions.  The average duration is for all those who are unemployed.  The median indicates that 50% of those who are unemployed had a longer duration, 50% had a shorter duration.  The difference between the mean and the median indicates that there are a large number of long-term unemployed people.  This may be a possible effect of providing 99 weeks of unemployment benefits.

Overall national unemployment rates exhibit their typical ethnic and education-level patterns.

Nationally, Black or African American unemployment is highest at 13.5%, followed by Hispanic or Latino unemployment at 9.1%.  White unemployment is 6.7% while Asian unemployment is lowest at 4.3%.

The unemployment rate is highest for those lacking a high school diploma, currently at 11.1%.  The data is only for those 25 and older, so it does not include teenage unemployment data. Those who are high school graduates, but no college have a 7.4% unemployment rate.  For those with a bachelor's degree or higher, unemployment stands at 3.8%.  In all categories, the overall unemployment rate is higher than historical averages.

California April 2013 Unemployment Rate

California's official unemployment rate continued to improve in April 2013, dropping by 0.4% from March to 9.0%.  California's unemployment rate continues to lag the nation as a whole and is the 4th-highest in the nation ahead of Nevada, Illinois, and Mississippi.

SOURCE:  U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics:  Unemployment Rate for States, Seasonally Adjusted (April 2013, preliminary).
www.bls.gov/web/laus/laumstrk.htm

The total number of non-farm payroll jobs in California continues to improve and presently stands at 14,602,200.  The current levels is down 539,900 jobs since January 2008.

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics:  California, Total Nonfarm, Seasonally adjusted - SMS06000000000000001.

data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/surveymost?sm+06

California March 2013 Unemployment Rate Compared to the Other 49 States

California's state unemployment rate dropped 0.2% from 9.6% in February down to 9.4% in March.  Despite the improvement, California tied with Mississippi for the nation's 3rd-highest unemployment rate behind Nevada and Illinois.  In February, California was tied for highest unemployment.

Nationally, the percentage of people participating the civilian workforce (EMRATIO) remains relatively low and stagnant, despite the Obama Administration's $787 billion Stimulus package (American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009, ARRA).  The current level remains roughly at its lowest in a generation--since the major recession during the early years of the Reagan Administration.  One of the provisions of the ARRA provided up to 99 weeks of unemployment benefits--nearly two years--which may have reduced job-seeking activities.  Likewise, the uncertainty of threatened tax hikes and the costs of implementing the Affordable Care Act (i.e. ObamaCare) may have reduced hiring activity.

Similarly, the average or mean duration of unemployment (UEMPMEAN) remains well above previous levels, although it has dropped slightly since its record high in 2011.  The average duration of unemployment remains well above--almost double--the previous-record levels set during the early 1980s.

Total non-farm employment (PAYEMS) continues to grow, although at a slower rate than after the last three recessions.  Note the slope of the dashed burgundy lines in the chart below.  The slope is shallower during the current recession, indicating slower job growth.  Total employment has not yet surpassed the previous peak in 2008.  During the current recession, total payroll fell below the trough of the previous dip for the first time since data was collected (1939).

California February 2013 Unemployment Rate Compared to the Other 49 States

California's state unemployment rate dropped 0.2% from 9.8% in January down to 9.6% in February.  Despite the improvement, California tied with Mississippi and Nevada for the states with the highest unemployment rate.

See also ...

• California January 2013 Unemployment Rate Compared to 49 Other States
• California December 2012 Unemployment Rate Compared to 49 Other States
• California November 2012 Unemployment Rate Compared to 49 Other States

California January 2013 Unemployment Rate Compared to 49 Other States

The Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the January 2013 seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate for each state.  This release was delayed from late February until mid-March, perhaps because the BLS was adjusting the last two years worth of data.

Regardless, California's unemployment rate remains stubbornly steady at 9.8%.  Thanks to big improvements by Nevada in January, California is now tied for worst unemployment with Rhode Island.

The BLS will release the February 2013 unemployment data on 29-MAR-2013.

California Budget Charts

Have a Coke and a Tax Hike

NOTE: Updated 28-FEB-2013 with updated Senate Bill number.

California State Senator Bill Monning (Democrat, 17th Senate District) re-introduced his controversial soda tax (SB 229 and previously AB 669), which would levy a $0.01 per ounce tax on every beverage sweetened with a caloric sweetener such as sugar or corn syrup.

Okay, let's do a little math to see the total effect of this proposed legislation.

Johnny buys a 12-pack of 12-ounce cans of regular Coke for $3.60, on sale from a supermarket in Capitola, California.  How much, per can, will Johnny pay?

Divide $3.60 by 12 cans and you find that each can of Coke costs $0.30.

Now add $0.05 per can for the California Redemption Value (CRV), just for the privilege of using a bottle or can in California.

Now add the appropriate sales tax.  The sales tax in Capitola is 8.5% and it applies not only to the cost of the can but also the CRV.  The CRV is NOT a deposit, as commonly thought.  It is a government fee subject to tax.  Therefore, the sales tax applies to $0.30 for the soda plus $0.05 for the CRV.  8.5% of $0.35 is $0.03.

Because regular Coke is sweetened with a caloric sweetener, add Assemblyman Monning's $0.01 per ounce tax for the 12 ounce can.  This adds $0.12 per can.

What's the total cost for each 12 oz. can of regular Coke?

$0.30 for the can of Coke
$0.05 for the California Redemption Value (CRV)
$0.03 for the 7.5% California sales tax plus the additional 1.00% Capitola sales tax
$0.12 for Bill Monning's soda tax (SB 229 / AB 669)
=====
$0.50 total cost for the can of Coke

For that $0.50 can, Johnny paid $0.30 for the Coke and $0.20 in taxes and fees.  Put another way, 60% of Johnny's money went to pay for something he actually wanted while 40% went to fund the California Nanny State.

The $0.30 can of Coke costs 67% more once government taxes and fees are applied.  The soda tax adds 32% over today's current cost, which would not include the soda tax.

Never mind that California ALREADY has ...

• the nation's 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 5th, and 7th highest state income tax rates thanks to Proposition 30
• the nation's highest state sales tax rate thanks to Proposition 30
• the nation's 2nd highest gasoline and diesel taxes

Naturally, beverage companies fear that the additional taxes will cut demand, which is the stated purpose of the legislature.  I have little sympathy for the Coca Cola Company or PepsiCo, who spent a combined $3.7 MILLION to support tax increases on all Californians via Proposition 30.

It appears that beverages sweetened with non-caloric sweeteners are unaffected (at least so far).  There are also dozens of possible loopholes, potentially leading to some very interesting new product offerings by the beverage industry to circumvent the tax.

Also, as pointed out by @TrollColors in response to this piece, retailers will likely adjust the price of sugary and diet sodas to maximize their profits.  The extra $0.12 tax on sugary sodas allows retails the ability to increase prices on diet sodas while still keeping below the sugary soda price.  This action will increase their profits.

One also wonders whether the California Legislature will disallow welfare recipients from purchasing sugary sodas using EBT cards.  In the past, the California Legislature refused to ban tobacco purchases using EBT cards, despite that the California government also collects heavy taxes to combat cigarette use.

See also ...

• SB 622: Sweetened Beverage Tax for Children's Health Promotion Fund
  http://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/billNavClient.xhtml?bill_id=201320140SB622
• AB 669: Sweetened Beverage Tax for Children's Health Promotion Fund
  http://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/billNavClient.xhtml?bill_id=201120120AB669

The Great Texas vs. California Smackdown

(or the Great "More Taxes" vs. "More Texas" Debate)

Recently, Texas Governor Rick Perry dared to challenge the All Great and Powerful Oz (aka, California Governor Jerry Brown) with a small radio advertising campaign inviting California businesses to "come check out Texas."  The radio ad was apparently so inflammatory and so very dangerous (just listen) that it prompted a response by Governor Brown, who, always the adult, dismissed the ads as "barely a fart."  Strangely, by even responding to the ads, California Governor Jerry Brown provided Texas with lots of valuable free advertising and publicity.

Even the The Party Mouthpiece (aka, The Sacramento Bee) got in on the act with a poorly-researched editorial dissing Texas.  Now, before we go much farther, it's important to know my biases.  I'm a fourth-generation native California who loves California's natural beauty and many of its fine citizens.  However, I have no love for those fine, free-spending fools that occupy California's capitol dome.

Governor Brown, as any good cheerleader would, accentuates California's positives.  I thought I'd do the same.  For example, thanks to Governor Brown's, union-funded, big-government Proposition 30 tax hike, California now boasts the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 5th, and 7th highest marginal state income tax rates in the nation. So what if it's bad public policy and a complete abuse of the democratic initiative process.

Poor ol' Texas.  Those fools in Texas don't even have an income tax!

Similarly, Proposition 30 also raised California's state sales tax, which was already the nation's highest before Proposition 30.  Governor Brown just wanted to make sure we didn't lose our first-place position.

In keeping with the theme, California has among the nation's highest gasoline taxes ...

... and among the nation's highest diesel taxes.

California is also one of the nation's leaders in high unemployment, despite its recent fastest-in-the-nation job growth.  Poor ol' Texas just can't seem to generate enough unemployment.

To be fair, California's job market is historically more sensitive to recessions.  Plus, California's unemployment rate has been higher than Texas' for most of the time since 1990.

One criticism of Texas, often heard in California, is "sure, Texas is generating jobs but they're all minimum wage jobs."  Indeed, Texas does have a much higher percentage of jobs that pay at or below the federal minimum wage--especially compared to California.

What many critics forget to mention is that California has an $8.00 per hour state minimum wage that supersedes the federal minimum wage of $7.25 per hour.  Additionally, some cities like San Francisco have an even higher minimum wage of $10.55 per hour.  Simple math dictates that state's with a minimum wage above the federal minimum wage will also have a lower percentage of jobs that pay at the federal minimum wage.  Here's the same chart as above, but this time, states paying a higher minimum wage are highlighted in blue.

As shown later, California, Texas, and Mississippi are the states with the lowest percentage of high school graduates.  No high school diploma usually implies a higher likelihood of a minimum-wage job.  In the most-recent recession, unemployment was highest among those with lower education.  If you compare a state's percentage of minimum wage workers to its unemployment rate, Texas seems to have a natural advantage over California.  Sure, Texas has more minimum wage jobs, which means there are more jobs available to those that have the most difficulty finding employment.  As a consequence, Texas has the lowest overall unemployment rate of the ten most populous states.  Admittedly, due to the cost-of-living differences, a minimum wage income goes a lot farther in Texas than in California. California, by comparison, has fewer minimum wage jobs and suffers from the nation's 3rd highest unemployment rate.  Nevada and Rhode Island have the nation's highest unemployment rates and also have a lower percentage of minimum-wage jobs.

Ample data shows that California's workers with lower educational attainment also have the highest unemployment rates.  The unemployment rate for those in California with less than a high school education was nearly 20% in 2010, or nearly double the national average.  Again, as shown later, California, Mississippi, and Texas are the three states with the lowest percentage of people with a high school education or higher.

California's dismal unemployment rate and the lack of minimum wage jobs fits with California Governor Jerry Brown's philosophy.  During his 1995 radio show, "We the People" on KSRO, Jerry Brown said:

"We need more welfare and fewer jobs. Jobs for every American is doomed to failure because of modern automation and production. We ought to recognize it and create an income-maintenance system so every single American has the dignity and the wherewithal for shelter, basic food, and medical care. I'm talking about welfare for all." 

As a consequence, it should be no surprise that California leads the nation with the largest percentage of its people receiving taxpayer-funded Temporary Aid to Needy Families (TANF) welfare benefits.  The people of Texas, obviously being a stupider and more heartily-bred people, just don't need as much government help.  I'll bet those stupid Texans value self-reliance!

Some in California's government complain that Texas has a high poverty rate.  The problem is, they use data from the U.S. Census Bureau that is not measured against the local cost of living.  Ask any Californian and they'll tell you that California has a high cost-of-living.  Using the Census Bureau's Supplemental Poverty Measure (SPM), the poverty level in California greatly surpasses Texas.  This might also explain why so many Californians are receiving TANF benefits.

Texas also stupidly tries to avoid large amounts of debt.  Can you imagine the insanity of NOT spending more money than you take in?  California is deeply in debt because we borrowed so much money to invest in ... what was it again we're investing in?  Well, there is that not-so-high-speed train that even high-speed rail advocates don't like.  Warning:  This chart might be biased in favor of California because it comes directly from the California Treasurers office.

Poor ol' Texans just don't suffer under the yoke of heavy deficits like Californians do.  California Governor Jerry Brown even suggested that maybe Texas should borrow more--you know, for investments.

California's government knows that business is evil and that you should treat them like dirt because, other than generating tax revenues to pay for government services, what good are they?  Texans stupidly think that a thriving economy is actually good for the state and its people.  Not surprisingly, California was one of only four states that proudly received an 'F' for its small business friendliness.  Those stupid Texans were only able to score an A+.

A nationwide survey of chief executive officers--you know, the people that decide to build and invest in businesses--also ranked Texas high and California low as "a place to do business."  On the survey, Texas ranked #1 for eight consecutive years.  Similarly, California ranked DEAD LAST for eight consecutive years.

One of the biggest surprises for me, as a Californian, is the difference in export industry between California and Texas.  Californians are often told that we're the world's 5th, or 8th, or 9th largest economy.  Despite that Texas has a smaller economy and a smaller population, Texas exports more goods than does California and has since about 2002.

California's share of total U.S. exports has fallen and is now below California's share of the total U.S. population.

No doubt, Texas has benefited from growth in the energy sector.  However, Texas exceed the national growth rate in exports in the top five export industries.  As a Silicon Valley worker, it is impressive to see the difference between California and Texas in Computers and Electronics.  California still exports more, but our share is falling.

The investor web-site 24/7 Wall Street compiles an annual list of the best- and worst-run states in America.  While Texas' ratings were more middle-of-the-road, California was ranked at the bottom of the heap for two consecutive years, 2011 and 2012.

Many in California love to brag about California's great companies, like Apple, Google, H-P, Oracle, Intel, etc.  It's funny that they never follow-up on that conversation.  Why is it that Intel hasn't created a new job in California in a decade?  Here, let Intel's CEO explain. Apple creates some amazing technological marvels, don't they?  I wonder how many middle-class manufacturing jobs Apple creates in California.  Also, I wonder what Apple's subsidiary in Reno, Nevada does?

The Sacramento Bee editorial taunted Texas as the "state that ranks dead last in the percent [sic] of its population with high school diplomas."  You'll have to excuse The Bee, being a California newspaper.  According to the latest U.S. Census Bureau data, Mississippi has the lowest percentage of its population, 25 or older, with a high school degree or higher.  Certainly, California at 80.8% ranks higher than Texas at 80.4%, but both rank below the national average of 85.4%.

[UPDATE 14-FEB-2013]:  Apparently, the source of The Sacramento Bee's claim is a different report from the United States Census Bureau, based on the 2011 American Community Survey.  Yep, according to the data table, Texas ranks last in the nation--but only because 'T' comes after 'C' and 'M'.  What The Sacramento Bee failed to tell readers is that California tied Texas and Mississippi for LAST PLACE.  The media will tell you with a straight face that they never distort the data.

If the editors at The Sacramento Bee were smarter, they would have instead pointed out that California has more college graduates than does Texas.  After all, California is home to the technological marvels in Silicon Valley.  Plus, you figure that The Bee would be proud, especially given the amount of money that California's taxpayers spend on our great university system and our students.  Despite massive tuition increases, California's public colleges and universities remain a relative bargain for California residents compared to other states, especially for California's illegal immigrants (sorry all you U.S. citizens in other states).

The highest percentage of college graduates occupy Washington, D.C--and look how well that's turned out for all of us!

Because we're on the topic of education, let's compare the performance of public schools.  The U.S. Department of Education regularly tests students nationally to assess the quality of education in various states and municipalities.  Those dumb hicks in Texas spend even less than the dismal amount spent by California.  Texas students must perform really poorly on those assessment tests, right? 

Okay, so Texas' public school students outperform California's public school students.  Who cares?  California has Silicon Valley, so math can't be that important.  California likely does better in science.

Oops, it looks like Texas does better in science, too.  Well, I'll bet those stupid hicks in Texas can't read.

See!  I told you.  Texas ranks below the national average in reading.  Please disregard California's lower-ranking data point (assuming you can read this). 

The Census data reflects what happened in the past.  The current high school graduation rate and dropout rate represents the present.  According to the United States Department of Education, Texas has a public high school graduation rate above the average of reporting states and above California.

Similarly, according to the United States Department of Education, Texas has a lower high school dropout rate than does California and is also below the average of reporting states.

Also according to the United States Department of Education, Texas has a lower dropout rate among all racial and ethnic groups than does California and than the averages of reporting states.  Texas' worst dropout rate of 4.2% was for Black students--which was still below California's average dropout rate of 4.6% for all students.

Many Californian's are blind to what has happened to our state.  Many live in an insulated bubble called Silicon Valley, near where I live and where I work.  I still have family in the California's Central Valley, where there is a much different reality.  Sure, California boasts the 2012 top-performing metropolitan area in the nation, San Jose, Sunnyvale, Santa Clara, CA--more popularly known as Silicon Valley. Texas, on the other hand, had three cities/regions in the top 10 and no cities in the bottom 50.  California has six cities ranked in the bottom 50 nationally.

In the 2013 Forbes list of the top cities for good jobs, five of the top ten are in Texas with only one in California.

Every year, Forbe's magazine tracks the top 20 most miserable U.S. cities. California has three cities on the list; Texas has none.  In fact, California's most miserable cities are all in the top ten worst, associated with failed cities like Detroit, Michigan and Chicago, Illinois.

Some in California blame all of California's woes on illegal immigration.  However, it's interesting to see that California and Texas are more similar than different in this regard.  Both states have large percentage of their population that was born outside the United States, including both legal and unauthorized immigrants.

A large portion of both California and Texas households speak a language other than English at home.

Both California and Texas have a large portion of undocumented immigrants in their state labor force, both roughly double the national average.

So, if undocumented immigrants are completely to blame, then why is California's unemployment rate so much higher than Texas'?

Everybody knows that those stupid Texans have way too many guns.  You can even buy AR-15s with 30-round clips, for God's sake!  Meanwhile, here in California, we have some of the nation's most stringent gun laws.  Obviously, as a consequence, California has a much lower firearm homicide rate, right?  Whaaaaat?

If fact, despite Texas' more-lenient gun laws, the overall murder rate in Texas is lower than in California as is the homicide rate from firearms based on FBI crime statistics for 2011.

Texas is often slammed by many in California for its lax environmental laws.  Funny, though, how many Californians seem blind to the problems in our own state.  According to rankings by the American Lung Association, California has the worst air quality on a variety of measures.

I could go on ... and I will as I generate more material.  I support many of Jerry Brown's attempted reforms (despite being a Democrat, Governor Brown is more fiscally responsible than most of the California Legislature and possibly his Republican predecessor, Arnold Schwarzenegger).  However, California's government lost any bragging rights when it refused common-sense reforms a decade ago.  California has overspent, accumulated debt, and refused to intelligently prioritize spending.  While Texas is far, far from perfect, its Legislature is on a more sustainable path toward prosperity.  Meanwhile, California is mired in fixing deficits and massive debts.

My hope is that someday ... maybe ... my fellow Californians will FINALLY WAKE UP.  As they say, the first step to a full recovery is to admit that you might have a problem.

See also ...

• California, "the oasis of Democratic politics"
• California Public Schools and Performance on National Assessments
• California Proposition 30: Governor Jerry Brown's Big-Government Tax Hike
• Texas vs. California - myth-busting time
• Does the Lone Star State have California beat? 
• "The Texas Model: Prosperity in the Lone Star State and Lessons for America" by former California Assemblyman Chuck DeVore who now lives in Texas
• John Stossel: Texas vs. California Economic Model
  
• John Stossel: Texas vs. California Gun Laws
  
• John Stossel: Texas vs. California Property Rights