February 2014 Employment Data (in graphical form)

California May 2013 Unemployment Rate

According the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), California's official unemployment rate continued to improve in May 2013, dropping by 0.4% from 0.9% in April to 8.6% in May. The national unemployment rate increased 0.1% to 7.6%. California's unemployment rate continues to lag the nation as a whole and is tied with New Jersey at the 5th-highest in the nation ahead of Nevada, Mississippi, Illinois, Rhode Island, and North Carolina.

SOURCE:  U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics:  Unemployment Rate for States, Seasonally Adjusted (April 2013, preliminary).

www.bls.gov/web/laus/laumstrk.htm

The current 8.6% unemployment rate is at its lowest level since October 2008, just before the 2008 Presidential election. The current 8.6% unemployment rate remains higher than the 7.0% peak during the prior recession although it currently is lower than the peak of the early 1990s recession.

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: Unemployment Rate in California (CAUR)

research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/CAUR/

Total non-farm payroll jobs in California grew by 10,800 jobs and presently stands at 14,612,500 jobs.  The current levels is up 727,200 jobs since the bottom of the recession but is is down 529,600 jobs from January 2008. At the current growth rate of 10,800 jobs per month, total employment will reach January 2008 levels in approximately four yours.

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics:  California, Total Nonfarm, Seasonally adjusted - SMS06000000000000001.

data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/surveymost?sm+06

Approximately 1.6 million Californians remain unemployed, down 364,000 from May 2012.

At the national level, the civilian participation rates in the job market (CIVPART, EMRATIO) remain at their lowest levels in a generation and show no immediate signs of improvement.

The average (mean) duration of unemployment (UEMPMEAN) and the median duration of unemployment (UEMPMED) remain well above the highs set in prior recessions.  The average duration is for all those who are unemployed.  The median indicates that 50% of those who are unemployed had a longer duration, 50% had a shorter duration.  The difference between the mean and the median indicates that there are a large number of long-term unemployed people.  This may be a possible effect of providing 99 weeks of unemployment benefits.

Overall national unemployment rates exhibit their typical ethnic and education-level patterns.

Nationally, Black or African American unemployment is highest at 13.5%, followed by Hispanic or Latino unemployment at 9.1%.  White unemployment is 6.7% while Asian unemployment is lowest at 4.3%.

The unemployment rate is highest for those lacking a high school diploma, currently at 11.1%.  The data is only for those 25 and older, so it does not include teenage unemployment data. Those who are high school graduates, but no college have a 7.4% unemployment rate.  For those with a bachelor's degree or higher, unemployment stands at 3.8%.  In all categories, the overall unemployment rate is higher than historical averages.

California April 2013 Unemployment Rate

California's official unemployment rate continued to improve in April 2013, dropping by 0.4% from March to 9.0%.  California's unemployment rate continues to lag the nation as a whole and is the 4th-highest in the nation ahead of Nevada, Illinois, and Mississippi.

SOURCE:  U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics:  Unemployment Rate for States, Seasonally Adjusted (April 2013, preliminary).
www.bls.gov/web/laus/laumstrk.htm

The total number of non-farm payroll jobs in California continues to improve and presently stands at 14,602,200.  The current levels is down 539,900 jobs since January 2008.

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics:  California, Total Nonfarm, Seasonally adjusted - SMS06000000000000001.

data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/surveymost?sm+06

California December 2012 Unemployment Rate Compared to 49 Other States

California's December 2012 unemployment rate remained flat compared to November 2012, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.  California's unemployment rate dropped 1.4% from the 11.2% rate one year ago. California's unemployment rate is 3rd highest in the nation, ahead of only Rhode Island and Nevada.  Nevada's economy is closely coupled with California's.  However, Nevada's December unemployment rate improved by 0.6% compared to November's rate, tying Rhode Island.

The EMRATIO shows that there continues to be lower-than-usual participation in the labor market nationally.  Compare the duration of the current low ratio against the deeper but shorter dip during the early 1980s.  Remember also that the current situation stubbornly persists even after a whopping $878 BILLION federal stimulus program and significant quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve.

The UEMPMEAN data shows the average duration that a worker is unemployed--currently around 38 weeks!  Again, notice the stark difference to the recession in the early 1980s.

The UEMPMED data shows the median duration of unemployment.  Half the workers have shorter unemployment, half the workers have longer unemployment.  Note the difference between the average (mean) duration above and the median duration, shown below.  Half the workers are finding jobs in about 18 weeks.  However, the large average indicates that the other half require significantly longer to find a new job.

The wide spread between the average duration and the median duration (UEMPMEAN-UEMPMED) indicates that there are a large number of unemployed workers that still have not found jobs.  There could be possible effects of the federal government providing up to 99 weeks of unemployment benefits.  Again,  the difference between the 1980's recession and the most-recent recession is interesting.

California November 2012 Unemployment Compared to 49 Other States

The November 2012 state unemployment report brought some welcome good news to California.  California's overall unemployment rate dropped below 10% for the first time since the start of the recession, thanks to strong job growth in parts of California and thanks to some job seekers dropping off the official count.  Tempering the good news, actual payrolls dropped by 3,800 compared to October, 2012.

California's unemployment rate dropped by 0.3% from October 2012.  However, California's unemployment rate stubbornly remains the third highest in the nation, ahead of only Rhode Island and Nevada (who is heavily dependent upon a healthy California economy).  California's overall unemployment rate remains well above the national average.

SOURCE: United States Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics: Unemployment Rate for States