California January 2014 Unemployment Rate vs. 49 Other States

February 2014 Employment Data (in graphical form)

California December 2013 Unemployment Rate Compared to 49 Other States

California May 2013 Unemployment Rate

According the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), California's official unemployment rate continued to improve in May 2013, dropping by 0.4% from 0.9% in April to 8.6% in May. The national unemployment rate increased 0.1% to 7.6%. California's unemployment rate continues to lag the nation as a whole and is tied with New Jersey at the 5th-highest in the nation ahead of Nevada, Mississippi, Illinois, Rhode Island, and North Carolina.

SOURCE:  U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics:  Unemployment Rate for States, Seasonally Adjusted (April 2013, preliminary).

www.bls.gov/web/laus/laumstrk.htm

The current 8.6% unemployment rate is at its lowest level since October 2008, just before the 2008 Presidential election. The current 8.6% unemployment rate remains higher than the 7.0% peak during the prior recession although it currently is lower than the peak of the early 1990s recession.

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: Unemployment Rate in California (CAUR)

research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/CAUR/

Total non-farm payroll jobs in California grew by 10,800 jobs and presently stands at 14,612,500 jobs.  The current levels is up 727,200 jobs since the bottom of the recession but is is down 529,600 jobs from January 2008. At the current growth rate of 10,800 jobs per month, total employment will reach January 2008 levels in approximately four yours.

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics:  California, Total Nonfarm, Seasonally adjusted - SMS06000000000000001.

data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/surveymost?sm+06

Approximately 1.6 million Californians remain unemployed, down 364,000 from May 2012.

At the national level, the civilian participation rates in the job market (CIVPART, EMRATIO) remain at their lowest levels in a generation and show no immediate signs of improvement.

The average (mean) duration of unemployment (UEMPMEAN) and the median duration of unemployment (UEMPMED) remain well above the highs set in prior recessions.  The average duration is for all those who are unemployed.  The median indicates that 50% of those who are unemployed had a longer duration, 50% had a shorter duration.  The difference between the mean and the median indicates that there are a large number of long-term unemployed people.  This may be a possible effect of providing 99 weeks of unemployment benefits.

Overall national unemployment rates exhibit their typical ethnic and education-level patterns.

Nationally, Black or African American unemployment is highest at 13.5%, followed by Hispanic or Latino unemployment at 9.1%.  White unemployment is 6.7% while Asian unemployment is lowest at 4.3%.

The unemployment rate is highest for those lacking a high school diploma, currently at 11.1%.  The data is only for those 25 and older, so it does not include teenage unemployment data. Those who are high school graduates, but no college have a 7.4% unemployment rate.  For those with a bachelor's degree or higher, unemployment stands at 3.8%.  In all categories, the overall unemployment rate is higher than historical averages.

California April 2013 Unemployment Rate

California's official unemployment rate continued to improve in April 2013, dropping by 0.4% from March to 9.0%.  California's unemployment rate continues to lag the nation as a whole and is the 4th-highest in the nation ahead of Nevada, Illinois, and Mississippi.

SOURCE:  U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics:  Unemployment Rate for States, Seasonally Adjusted (April 2013, preliminary).
www.bls.gov/web/laus/laumstrk.htm

The total number of non-farm payroll jobs in California continues to improve and presently stands at 14,602,200.  The current levels is down 539,900 jobs since January 2008.

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics:  California, Total Nonfarm, Seasonally adjusted - SMS06000000000000001.

data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/surveymost?sm+06

California March 2013 Unemployment Rate Compared to the Other 49 States

California's state unemployment rate dropped 0.2% from 9.6% in February down to 9.4% in March.  Despite the improvement, California tied with Mississippi for the nation's 3rd-highest unemployment rate behind Nevada and Illinois.  In February, California was tied for highest unemployment.

Nationally, the percentage of people participating the civilian workforce (EMRATIO) remains relatively low and stagnant, despite the Obama Administration's $787 billion Stimulus package (American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009, ARRA).  The current level remains roughly at its lowest in a generation--since the major recession during the early years of the Reagan Administration.  One of the provisions of the ARRA provided up to 99 weeks of unemployment benefits--nearly two years--which may have reduced job-seeking activities.  Likewise, the uncertainty of threatened tax hikes and the costs of implementing the Affordable Care Act (i.e. ObamaCare) may have reduced hiring activity.

Similarly, the average or mean duration of unemployment (UEMPMEAN) remains well above previous levels, although it has dropped slightly since its record high in 2011.  The average duration of unemployment remains well above--almost double--the previous-record levels set during the early 1980s.

Total non-farm employment (PAYEMS) continues to grow, although at a slower rate than after the last three recessions.  Note the slope of the dashed burgundy lines in the chart below.  The slope is shallower during the current recession, indicating slower job growth.  Total employment has not yet surpassed the previous peak in 2008.  During the current recession, total payroll fell below the trough of the previous dip for the first time since data was collected (1939).

California February 2013 Unemployment Rate Compared to the Other 49 States

California's state unemployment rate dropped 0.2% from 9.8% in January down to 9.6% in February.  Despite the improvement, California tied with Mississippi and Nevada for the states with the highest unemployment rate.

See also ...

• California January 2013 Unemployment Rate Compared to 49 Other States
• California December 2012 Unemployment Rate Compared to 49 Other States
• California November 2012 Unemployment Rate Compared to 49 Other States

California January 2013 Unemployment Rate Compared to 49 Other States

The Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the January 2013 seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate for each state.  This release was delayed from late February until mid-March, perhaps because the BLS was adjusting the last two years worth of data.

Regardless, California's unemployment rate remains stubbornly steady at 9.8%.  Thanks to big improvements by Nevada in January, California is now tied for worst unemployment with Rhode Island.

The BLS will release the February 2013 unemployment data on 29-MAR-2013.

Digging Deeper Into President Obama's Manufacturing Jobs Claim

During his 2013 State of the Union address, President Obama said ..

After shedding jobs for more than 10 years, our manufacturers have added about 500,000 jobs over the past three.

The 500,000 number sounds impressive!  Is it true? Fortunately, the government keeps good records for all this data, so I checked.

The following chart shows the number of those employed in manufacturing (MANEMP) from January, 2008 until today. The minimum over the last three years happened in January, 2010 when the manufacturing workforce fell to 11,460 thousands, or 11.46 million.  The peak manufacturing workforce in the last three years happened in July, 2012 at 11,957 thousands, or 11.957 million jobs.  The difference between the peak and the trough is 497 thousand manufacturing jobs, which is certainly close enough to the claimed 500,000 for government work. However, the current tally through January, 2013 falls slightly to 450,000.

Because I know what the definition of "is" is and I'm semi-fluent in how politicians sometimes manipulate statistical data, my spidey senses were all a tingle from the "over the past three" years statement.  President Obama has been in office longer than three years, right?  How many manufacturing jobs have we created since he took office?  Here's the same chart as before, but now let's measure from February, 2009, when he was first inaugurated as President, until today.  By picking slightly different data points, we've now LOST 436,000 manufacturing jobs.  That's only a difference of 933,000 manufacturing jobs--nearly a million jobs difference--between the President's best-case numbers and the President's term in office.

Yes, I'm quite aware that President Obama was standing way too close when the big chunks struck the proverbial fan after the subprime mortgage bubble collapsed.  I'm also aware that we've bailed out banks, purchased one of the world's largest auto makers (General Motors), spent $878 BILLION on a Stimulus program, spent $3 BILLION on the "Clash for Clunkers" auto rebate that also benefited foreign auto manufacturers, had interest rates near 0% for years, and the Federal Reserve purchased over $1 TRILLION in U.S. debt.  Excuse me for saying, but I would have expected a much bigger jump in manufacturing employment given that amount of rocket fuel.

Yes, it's good that we increased the number of manufacturing jobs in the United States.  But let's compare the ratio of all manufacturing jobs (MANEMP) to the number of all those on non-farm payroll (PAYEMS).  This ration was about 0.1 back in January, 2008 meaning hat about 1 in 10 jobs was in manufacturing.  After the global financial crisis, this number dropped to about 1 in 11.2 jobs and has remained fairly flat over the President's time in office.

How can we be adding jobs but be losing manufacturing jobs as a percentage of the workforce?  Fortunately, total non-farm payroll (PAYEMS) has been slowly clawing its way back after the global financial meltdown. So, despite more manufacturing jobs, their percentage of the total workforce remains roughly the same (and even falling slightly the last few months).

That's the "good" news.  What's the bad news?  The percentage of people participating in the civilian workforce (EMRATIO) remains fairly stagnant and near a 30-year low.  Yes, even after all that rocket fuel.

Likewise, the average duration of unemployment (UEMPMEAN) is at a 30-year high, well above previous levels.  This may be due, in part, to Congress extending federal unemployment benefits to 99 weeks.

In summary, yes, it's good that we have employment growth in the manufacturing sector.  However, that growth is not as robust as the President's claim might lead people to believe.  We still have a long way to go toward a healthy economy, despite the massive infusion of cash, stimulus, and aid into the system.  We've also been in a 30-year trajectory (MANEMP) of lower and lower manufacturing employment, especially after the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks.  There are many driving forces, including globalization (cost differences, tax policy, new competitors) and improved manufacturing technology (robotics) that lead to improved productivity.

California December 2012 Unemployment Rate Compared to 49 Other States

California's December 2012 unemployment rate remained flat compared to November 2012, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.  California's unemployment rate dropped 1.4% from the 11.2% rate one year ago. California's unemployment rate is 3rd highest in the nation, ahead of only Rhode Island and Nevada.  Nevada's economy is closely coupled with California's.  However, Nevada's December unemployment rate improved by 0.6% compared to November's rate, tying Rhode Island.

The EMRATIO shows that there continues to be lower-than-usual participation in the labor market nationally.  Compare the duration of the current low ratio against the deeper but shorter dip during the early 1980s.  Remember also that the current situation stubbornly persists even after a whopping $878 BILLION federal stimulus program and significant quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve.

The UEMPMEAN data shows the average duration that a worker is unemployed--currently around 38 weeks!  Again, notice the stark difference to the recession in the early 1980s.

The UEMPMED data shows the median duration of unemployment.  Half the workers have shorter unemployment, half the workers have longer unemployment.  Note the difference between the average (mean) duration above and the median duration, shown below.  Half the workers are finding jobs in about 18 weeks.  However, the large average indicates that the other half require significantly longer to find a new job.

The wide spread between the average duration and the median duration (UEMPMEAN-UEMPMED) indicates that there are a large number of unemployed workers that still have not found jobs.  There could be possible effects of the federal government providing up to 99 weeks of unemployment benefits.  Again,  the difference between the 1980's recession and the most-recent recession is interesting.

California November 2012 Unemployment Compared to 49 Other States

The November 2012 state unemployment report brought some welcome good news to California.  California's overall unemployment rate dropped below 10% for the first time since the start of the recession, thanks to strong job growth in parts of California and thanks to some job seekers dropping off the official count.  Tempering the good news, actual payrolls dropped by 3,800 compared to October, 2012.

California's unemployment rate dropped by 0.3% from October 2012.  However, California's unemployment rate stubbornly remains the third highest in the nation, ahead of only Rhode Island and Nevada (who is heavily dependent upon a healthy California economy).  California's overall unemployment rate remains well above the national average.

SOURCE: United States Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics: Unemployment Rate for States

New Jersey vs. California--The Governor Smackdown!

Recently, New Jersey's rotund and robust Governor Chris Christie and California's venerable Governor Jerry Brown entered into what might best be called a smackdown.  The entire escapade is somewhat funny given the horrible economic condition of BOTH states.  It's like the zombie telling the corpse that he stinks.

The battle began when Christie Christie, during a speech at the Republican National Convention, called Jerry Brown an "old retread" and a "bad choice".  Jerry Brown, despite his advanced age, shot back with a physical fitness challenge to the immensely obese Chris Christie, including a three-mile race.  Apparently, Jerry Brown misheard "physical" for "fiscal" fitness.

The real loser in this "Battle of the Governors" are the people of California and New Jersey.  Both California and New Jersey suffer from a variety of similar economic maladies and for similar reasons.

• Both California and New Jersey have among the nation's highest state income tax rates.  New Jersey's top income tax rate is 8.97% and starts at incomes over $500,000 (single taxpayer).  In contrast, California's second-highest rate is 9.3% and starts at incomes over $48,000 (single payer)!  California also adds a 1% surtax on incomes over $1 million, resulting in a 10.3%, which is second nationally only to Hawaii's top rate of 11%.
  
  California Governor Brown wants to raise California's ALREADY-high state income tax rates via Proposition 30.  Under Governor Brown's plan, those making over $250,000 would pay 10.3%, which is the rate currently only paid by millionaires in California.  Proposition 30 adds two new tax brackets, including an 11.3% bracket at incomes over $300,000 and a 12.3% bracket at incomes over $500,000.  Both new brackets are higher than any other state in the nation.  As before, the 1% surtax on millionaires would boost California's top income tax rate to 13.3%--a full 21% higher than the next highest state, Hawaii!

• Both California and New Jersey have among the nation's highest state sales tax rates.  California currently has the nation's highest statewide rate, although the combined state, city, county, and local rates in other states may be higher. Governor Brown's Proposition 30, if passed by California voters, would raise the state sales tax rate to 7.50%.

• California has the nation's highest gasoline tax.  Surprisingly, New Jersey's gasoline tax is relatively low--well below the national average.

• Both the California and New Jersey Legislatures are dominated by Democrats with close ties to powerful public-sector unions.  In California, public-sector unions are among the biggest spenders in California politics.  Both the Speaker of the California Assembly and the President pro Tempore in the California Senate have strong ties to California labor unions.  Perhaps unsurprisingly, California's public-sector unions are also major funders of Governor Jerry Brown's Proposition 30 tax hikes.

• Both California and New Jersey are union-only states, where some jobs in the public sector require union membership. In fact, Jerry Brown expanded collective bargaining for California's teachers.
• Both California and New Jersey have among the nation's worst-rated business climates. Both California and New Jersey duke it out for one of the "coveted" bottom five positions.

On the Kauffman Foundation survey of small business friendliness, California ranked 'F'--primarily for its tax code.  Proposition 30, if passed by voters, will no doubt lower California's already dismal ratings.

• Both California and New Jersey have unemployment rates well-above the national average. As of July 2012, California had the nation's 3rd worst unemployment rate at 10.7%.  New Jersey had the nation's 4th worst but is almost a full percentage point better than California.  California's unemployment remained steady from June-to-July while New Jersey's rate worsened slightly from 9.6% to 9.8%.

• Both New Jersey and California have low credit ratings, although California's currently ranks the lowest in the nation. Illinois has since been downgraded since this chart was created, but still ranks above California.

• California has the nation's largest population of Temporary Aid to Needy Families (TANF) welfare recipients, while New Jersey's TANF population is toward the low end nationally.

While California's Governor Jerry Brown in old and New Jersey's Governor Chris Christie is fat, neither state Governor can boast he has a beautiful economy.  However, in my opinion, Governor Brown is leading California in the wrong direction with his Proposition 30 tax hikes.  I encourage California voters to VOTE NO on PROPOSITION 30 this November.